Alan Chan、Hinton 等学者发文探讨自动化 AI 研发是否触发智能爆炸
What if automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion?
Alan Chan、Geoffrey Hinton、Yoshua Bengio 等学者发布论文，评估自动化 AI 研发（R&D）可能触发智能爆炸的证据、影响与政策应对。
多位知名学者系统评估自动化 AI 研发引发智能爆炸的证据、风险与政策应对，为理解这一前沿议题提供框架。
Authors:Alan Chan, Christoph Winter, Andrew Barto, Jakub Pachocki, Geoffrey Hinton, Eric Horvitz, Yoshua Bengio, Dawn Song, Jack Clark, Hilary Greaves, Anton Korinek, Samuel Hammond, Thore Graepel, Ben Bariach, Philip H. S. Torr, Sheila A. McIlraith, Jeff Clune, Sam Manning, Girish Sastry, Tom Davidson, Daniel Eth, Sören Mindermann
Abstract:In contrast to even a year ago, AI systems now write most of the code inside the companies that build them. As more of the AI research and development (R&D) pipeline is automated, could AI progress radically accelerate in an "intelligence explosion," where years of advances are compressed into months or less? Preliminary evidence suggests that it could. In this work, we assess this evidence, analyze an intelligence explosion's potential impacts, and propose policy responses. AI systems are on track to automate most AI R\&D work within a few years, and possibly all of it. If this triggers an intelligence explosion, it could dramatically bring forward AI's benefits, but also pose extreme risks: capabilities growth could accelerate far beyond what society can keep up with, humanity could lose control over superhuman AI systems, and checks on power within and between states, companies, and branches of government could be severely eroded. Although there remains much uncertainty about these possibilities, the high stakes warrant serious further attention. Policymakers should urgently obtain more visibility into the automation of AI R&D, develop ways to steer and constrain an intelligence explosion, and prepare society to adapt to an intelligence explosion's impacts.
| Subjects: | Computers and Society (cs.CY); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2609.36054 [cs.CY] |
| (or arXiv:2609.36054v2 [cs.CY] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.36054 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite |
Submission history
From: Alan Chan [view email]
[v1]
Mon, 28 Sep 2026 18:13:31 UTC (1,076 KB)
[v2]
Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:06:37 UTC (664 KB)
来源：arXiv cs.AI · arxiv.org