时间序列基础模型的动态多步解码策略研究

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Abstract:Time-series forecasting models typically use a fixed decoding strategy at inference time: either one-shot prediction of the full horizon or autoregressive rollout over atomic chunks. While one-shot decoding reduces error accumulation, it can discard useful sequential structure; conversely, autoregressive decoding preserves temporal dependencies but may compound errors. We argue that the optimal decoding strategy is not fixed across inputs, but should be selected adaptively for each forecasting instance. We propose a dynamic strategy selector that treats the forecast rollout schedule as an inference-time decision problem for frozen pretrained time-series foundation models. The selector is a learned network that ranks candidate rollout schedules using hidden states of the backbone, and is trained on historical windows of the evaluated tasks for each backbone. To make the candidate set tractable over the exponentially large space of horizon partitions, we use dynamic programming that reduces candidate evaluation to quadratic complexity while preserving much of the oracle gain. At deployment, five independently trained selectors vote on each decision, and the policy follows their consensus, falling back to the backbone's one-shot forecast where they disagree. The construction requires only the backbone's hidden states and lightweight selectors, with no fine-tuning of the forecasting backbone. On fev-bench with a frozen Chronos-2 backbone, agreement-gated selection improves point-forecast skill (MASE) over one-shot decoding with statistical significance, mostly on longer horizons. It recovers about 6-8% of the gain that the same dynamic program attains with ground-truth selection. With a frozen Moirai-1.1-R-small backbone, the improvement is also significant on the full benchmark, and for both backbones we claim gains in point accuracy only.

Submission history

From: Birmjune Kim [view email]
[v1] Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:10:01 UTC (167 KB)